Towards an economic assessment approach for early warning systems: Improving cost-avoidance calculations with regard to private households

In recent years, Early Warning Systems (EWS) have proven their value by saving many lives. However, most investments into EWS were motivated directly by experienced disaster events and rarely pro-actively by possible upcoming threats. In order to change that we think that besides ethical and humanitarian reasons also the positive economic effects should be analyzed. EWS also help to protect property, but their contribution is not as obvious in that field due to the lack of quantitative models. This paper presents a disaster-independent formula that shows the benefits of EWS. Additional value to existing approaches is based on its advanced focus on behavioral aspects and the benefits of EWS in comparison to warnings issued via social media. We consider this work as an important contribution for future investments into warning technologies. However, yet this model just provides a theoretical framework for necessary empirical studies that are subject of further research.